CF40 Research
Articles about CF40 Research
2026 Bund Summit is coming on October 19
Global Financial Leaders, Policymakers and Scholars to Gather in Shanghai to Explore “Technology, Geopolitics and the Global Economy”
China’s September PMI: Is the Rebound Sustainable?
China’s manufacturing PMI rose 0.3 percentage points to 50.1% in September, returning to expansion territory. The rebound, however, fell short of the 0.6-percentage-point seasonal average in 2022–2025.
Three Takeaways from the Two Sets of Additional Policy Measures to Support Investment and the Property Market
We have three takeaways from China’s latest policy measures.
U.S. Treasury Yields May Have Peaked for Now, but Longer-Term Upside Risks Remain
U.S. Treasury bonds have come under renewed pressure recently, with yields climbing rapidly to levels not seen in nearly two decades. The 10-year Treasury yield has risen throughout September and recently crossed the 5% threshold. On September 28, it climbed intraday to its highest level since 2007 and closed at around 5.25%. The 30-year yield reached approximately 5.57%, its highest level since 2004. The two-year yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy expectations, rose to around 4.94%.
AI Macroeconomics: New Patterns of Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Their Management
AI may not just raise productivity—it could change how macroeconomy fluctuates. The bigger question is whether AI can trigger a sustained chain of innovation, rather than a one-off productivity boost.
How Much of a Cushion Can China Still Provide for the Global Oil Market?
We estimate how much further China can cushion the global oil market as its crude oil imports recover amid the prolonged Middle East conflict.
Warsh Nearly Commits to a Rate-Hiking Cycle
Sharing our 4 takeaways from the September Fed meeting
Takeaways from China’s August 2026 Macroeconomic Data
China’s August macro data offer a mixed picture: production remains relatively resilient, while domestic demand has moderated. We take a closer look at the data and highlight three developments.
How Much Economic Value Can AI Create Through Labor Substitution and Augmentation?
We wanted to understand how much economic value AI could create over the next decade—looking specifically at what it can do by substituting for and augmenting existing labor tasks.
Right-Wing Populism as an Enduring Force
We see the rise of right-wing populism as one of the most important political trends shaping Europe and the United States today. That’s why we recently took a closer look at what is driving this shift, why it may persist, and how it could reshape the policy environment.